
Overview Strategic Report Governance Financial Statements Other information (unaudited)
07
The resultant decline in values has
increased average real estate net
initial yields from 3.8% in June 2022
to 4.7% today, the highest level since
June 2020, with our portfolio now
yielding 5.8%. As expected, lower
yielding, higher growth real estate
sectors such as South East and
London industrial have been most
adversely impacted by this rerating,
resulting in a reversal in the
unprecedented polarisation of
returns over recent years. Higher
yielding sectors – such as retail
warehousing, and offices in stronger
regional centres – have been less
adversely impacted, leading to a
convergence in returns across the
main sectors. Against this backdrop,
our well diversified portfolio has
outperformed the Benchmark due to
the active management of the higher
yielding, regional industrial estates,
as well as higher-yielding retail
warehousing and offices in stronger
regional centres.
Occupational markets have, so
far, remained more resilient, with
average nominal rental value growth
for UK real estate of 2.5% per
annum since June 2022. Although
below current inflation levels, there
remains a strong positive long-
term correlation between rental
growth rates and inflation, with
sectors benefiting from structural
demand drivers and lower vacancy
rates delivering rental growth well
above the long-term average of
approximately 0.9%. For example,
in contrast with the sharp decline
in capital values, average industrial
rental values have increased
by 5.9% since June 2022.
There are initial signs that the
investment market is now stabilising,
with a capital value decline from our
underlying portfolio of -0.5% over
the quarter to March 2023
(Benchmark: -1.3%), contrasting with
-11.9% over the quarter to December
(Benchmark: -13.2%). The extent of
any subsequent recovery will
depend on falling inflation, with the
Bank of England currently
forecasting a return to its target rate
in 2024. In this seemingly benign
scenario, interest rates should fall,
but probably to a higher equilibrium
rate of around 3%, above the
ultra-low levels of the recent past.
Agap of approximately 2% between
property yields and 10 year gilts is
approaching the long term average
for fair value, which, combined with
a more a stable political backdrop
and currency, should attract
domestic and international capital
flows back to the sector.
Looking forward, long term
structural trends such as
urbanisation, technological change,
demographics and sustainability
should continue to drive returns, with
multi-let industrial estates, retail
warehousing, certain London office
sub-markets and some alternative
sectors expected to outperform.
These sectors should also benefit
from limited new development. This
contrasts with secondary office and
weaker retail assets, where
obsolescence, higher vacancy and
lower levels of occupational demand
will negatively impact returns.
Strategy
Our strategy is focused on delivering
sustainable dividend growth and
improving the quality of the
underlying portfolio through a
disciplined, research-led approach
to transactions, capital investment
and active management. This activity
will be complemented by
maintaining a robust balance sheet
and continuing to manage costs
efficiently. Furthermore, with a
growing consensus that there is a
meaningful rental premium for
buildings with a green certification,
which we are seeing across our own
portfolio, we believe there is an
opportunity to differentiate our
strategy by placing even greater
emphasis on how sustainability-led
asset improvements will deliver
enhanced returns for shareholders.
This reflects our strong conviction
that only by transforming less
sustainable buildings into modern,
fitfor purpose assets, will we deliver
these enhanced returns and the
wider real estate industry reach its
net zero carbon targets.
The relative outperformance of the
underlying portfolio during the
market correction has demonstrated
the benefits of owning a diversified
portfolio, with expertise to invest
across all sectors. The portfolio
remains diversified, but with a higher
weighting to sectors and assets
expected to deliver higher total
returns and income growth.
Approximately half the portfolio by
value comprises multi-let industrial
estates, and exposure to retail
warehousing increased slightly to
11.6% during the year. The exposure
to offices was unchanged at 27.5%
and, although the occupational
market remains more challenging,
progress has been made reducing
risk through lease extensions to
retain existing tenants, targeted
refurbishment programmes to
improve letting prospects, including
by improving environmental and
social credentials, and to support
potential disposals.
During the year, we acquired a
higher yielding mixed-use office and
retail building in Manchester and,
post year end, a small adjoining
ownership in Chelmsford. Three
disposals completed or contracted
totalling £12.6 million at a 13%
average premium to the valuation
atthe start of the financial year, with
We believe there is an
opportunity to differentiate
our strategy by placing
evengreater emphasis on
how sustainability-led asset
improvements will deliver
enhanced returns for
shareholders”