09
Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust plc
in these particular businesses would actually lower
the
long term
growth potential and quality of the
portfolio that we are managing. Tobe clear, they
are not terrible businesses and might well make the
cut if our remit was to manage an ‘all weather’ or
‘value’ portfolio. But it is not. Weare managing a
best ideas ‘growth’ portfolio.
The other major negative in the period was
that the valuation of several of our high-quality
compounders – such as auto and property
classifieds platforms AutoTrader and Rightmove,
credit data and decisioning business Experian,
ITvalue-added reseller Softcat – de-rated sharply
as part of a broader sell-off in software companies
relating to fears of disruption fromAI.
We accept that AI is a momentous technology
which will impact all businesses. In a narrow sense,
it might well shape how consumers search for and
buy cars and properties, how enterprises procure
IT, how data is analysed and how decisions are
made. These companies will most certainly have
to adapt. However, it seems to us that the market
is pricing a much more severe outcome – one of
structural competitive moat impairment where AI
commoditises the core value proposition, erodes
customer relationships and permanently reduces
value capture. We believe this is far too simplistic.
Whilst AI may change the interface through which
customers discover and consume information
and services, it does not automatically replace
the underlying assets which have made these
businesses so valuable. Proprietary, high quality,
commercially relevant data, trusted brands, network
effects, customer and regulatory relationships,
workflow integration and habit formation all
underpin these companies’ competitive advantages
and remain highly defensible. In fact, AI may
well increase the value of these scarce assets
by making them more usable and monetisable.
Encouragingly, all of the companies are on the
front foot and investing in capabilities. All have
launched AI-enabled products, with customer
adoption suggesting real utility. Webelieve their
strong strategic position gives them a better
chance than most of earning attractive returns on
these investments. We, therefore, see the current
market panic as providing a potentially compelling
investment opportunity.
Portfolio activity
During the second half of the financial year, we
bought a new holding in Greggs. The company
has built one of the UK’s strongest value-led food
brands, and we believe this will remain its core
growth engine over the next five years. Its scale
and vertically integrated model give it a structural
cost advantage that should allow it to defend
price leadership while improving margins. The
heavy investment cycle of more than £1bn from
2022–2026 has strengthened its manufacturing
and supply chain base, widening the moat at a time
when many competitors have been constrained by
inflation and cost pressure. As capex moderates,
we expect those investments to translate into
better efficiency, stronger cash generation and
more profitable store growth. We believe Greggs
can continue compounding earnings by combining
a trusted national brand, unmatched value and a
better-invested operating platform than the rest of
the market.
We also made some additions to existing holdings.
Weincreased our holding in Softcat. Within its
half year results in January, the company reported
23% gross profit growth and 27% operating profit
growth, with management upgrading the full year
profit guidance. Yet, the company is trading at a
10-year low valuation reflecting the perception of
being an AI“loser”. We view the market’s worry
that AI will reduce the need for channel partners
as misplaced. The evidence points to enterprise
IT becoming more, rather than less, complex.
AIadoption adds complexity for customers across
areas such as cloud architecture, data readiness,
governance and compliance and cybersecurity.
This all plays to the strengths of a business whose
value proposition is providing trusted advice and
helping customers navigate a complex, multi-vendor
technologyenvironment.
We have been keen to steadily build the small
position in Spirax Group as we think this high quality
engineer is poised to improve after a few years of
relatively sluggish growth by its stellar standards,
caused by post pandemic destocking by customers
in one of its divisions and a slightly tougher
backdrop in its core steam business. We think the
long-term opportunities created by electrification
and decarbonisation are substantial and Spirax’s
competitive advantage makes it likely that it will be
able to capitalise on this profitably.