
www.polarcapitaltechnologytrust.co.uk
17
Overview
Manager’s
Report
Environmental, Social
and Governance (ESG)
Corporate
Governance
Financial
Statements
Shareholder
Information
hyperscaler capex meeting tighter supply also drove strong
returns in hard disk drives, an area the Company had not
held meaningfully for years, but, applying our 'AI lens',
revisited during the year. This produced significant positive
contributions from Seagate Technology (+199bps) and
Western Digital (+107bps).
While the large (average 10.6%) but underweight
(-4.1%) position in NVIDIA detracted -58bps from relative
performance as we found opportunities elsewhere and
tried to balance single-stock risk with enthusiasm for the
AI theme, this was more than offset by broader AI-related
exposure. The Company benefited from overweight
positions in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD; +167bps),
TSMC (+65bps) and Intel (+45bps), alongside key supply
chain enablers including Elite Material (+314bps),
TTM Technologies (+139bps) and Ibiden (+77bps).
Semiconductor equipment and manufacturing companies
also performed well on AI- and memory-related demand:
LAM Research (+165bps) and KLA (+91bps), plus smaller
holdings such as Disco (+32bps) and FormFactor (+50bps).
Tokyo Electron (-33bps) provided a modest offset.
The Company's exposure to networking provided more than
1,000bps of relative performance. As previously discussed,
the sector – encompassing chips, cables, fibre, switches
and optical components – appears well positioned to
benefit from the shift toward denser, higher-performance
computing and the growing need to interconnect AI training
clusters across multiple data centres. The theme enjoyed a
sharp recovery from the depressed Liberation Day-induced
lows and produced a plethora of large contributors:
Lumentum Holdings (+379bps from a +1,402% stock
return), Ciena (+306bps), Corning (+204bps), Fujikura
(+201bps), Celestica (+178bps), Coherent (+129bps), Asia
Vital Components (+127bps), Credo Technology Group
Holding (+94bps) and Fabrinet (+74bps).
Closely related, the off-benchmark exposure to the data
centre power and cooling theme also contributed strongly,
benefiting from capex strength and the increasingly power-
intensive nature of AI-optimised servers and data centres.
Strong order books and earnings momentum drove
positive contributions from Delta Electronics (+146bps),
GE Vernova (+93bps), Vertiv Holdings (+89bps), Siemens
Energy (+80bps) and Caterpillar (+36bps), more than
offsetting modest detractions from other power-related
holdings such as Belimo Holdings (-27bps). We leaned
on our AI team's experience and domain expertise as we
scaled exposure to these technology-adjacent areas.
Another major driver of relative performance was
our significant underweight in the software sector,
which materially underperformed during the year. This
positioning reflected our out-of-consensus view that
incumbent software is unlikely to prove a good conduit for
AI – a view the market embraced as enterprise software
multiples compressed and several leading SaaS franchises
came under sustained pressure. Microsoft (+417bps)
underperformed the benchmark by 53% over the period
as expectations adjusted to AI-driven competition and the
defensive nature of elevated capex. Underweight or zero
positions in Salesforce.com (+116bps), Intuit (+85bps),
SAP (+87bps), ServiceNow (+80bps), Adobe Systems
(Adobe)(+72bps), Oracle (+67bps) and IBM (+61bps) all
contributed positively, partially offset by smaller positions
in MongoDB (-75bps) and Snowflake (-33bps).
The internet sector proved more challenging. The largest
single stock detractor was an underweight in Alphabet
(-235bps), reflecting a strong post-April recovery supported
by a favourable DoJ outcome, successful model launches
(Nano Banana; Gemini 3; Genie) and a reappraisal of the
strategic value of Google's first-party chip and networking
capabilities. This was partially ameliorated by the Google
equity call options, which added back 122bps. The arrival of
agentic AI and collapsing cost of code raised terminal value
questions for Spotify Technology (-54bps), Carvana (-44bps),
Netflix (-41bps), AppLovin (-37bps) and Shopify (-34bps).
Robinhood Markets offered a modest offset (+44bps).
Unsurprisingly in a strong market, the largest negative
contributions came from cash and the NASDAQ put
options. An average cash position of around 4.8% was the
single greatest drag (-277bps), while we paid away 130bps
on NASDAQ put options designed to ameliorate the impact
of sharp technology sector drawdowns.
As mentioned in prior reports, we view both cash and
the NASDAQ put strategy within the context of an overall
portfolio whose beta – owing to our growth and AI focus –
remains well above one. In the prior year, the NASDAQ put
options worked effectively during the January-April selloff.
They also allowed us to maintain the pro-AI shape of the
portfolio during early April volatility, which undoubtedly
contributed to the Company's strong rebound. Finally,
the use of equity call options – implemented to protect
against upside risk in select stocks where we hold large
underweight positions – contributed 125bps to relative
performance during the financial year. Foreign exchange
(FX) was a modest headwind to Company returns as sterling
strengthened slightly versus the US dollar, given the majority
of the portfolio’s holdings are denominated in non-sterling
currencies, primarily the dollar and dollar-linked currencies.
Market outlook
We consider the market outlook primarily through the lens
of whether any potential macro or market shock is likely to
derail the AI story. The answer so far has been 'no' – or 'not
yet' – as the S&P 500's rebound from October 2022 lows
has been among the strongest since 1928.