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Schroder Japan Growth Fund plc
Investment Manager’s Review
Market background
The Company’s Net Asset Value recorded a small positive total
return for the year to the end 31 July 2022 of +1.0%, whereas
the benchmark declined slightly, with a negative total return of
-1.9% (source: Morningstar, net of fees in GBP, NAV to NAV cum
income return). This extended the period of outperformance
seen in the previous year, with no change in the underlying
strategy.
In Yen terms the Japanese market rose by 4.5% in the
12months, but the Japanese currency weakened across the
period, which led to a lower return from the market in sterling
terms.
Following the Tokyo Olympics in July 2021, the Japanese
government extended Covid-related restrictions throughout
August and September. Public dissatisfaction with the
government’s approach ratcheted up again and the approval
rate for Prime Minister Suga and his cabinet fell to the lowest
levels seen during his 12 months in office. On 3 September
2021, the Prime Minister unexpectedly announced his intention
to resign without contesting the LDP leadership election
scheduled for later that month. This inevitably led to a brief
period of political uncertainty before Mr Kishida ultimately
emerged victorious in the party leadership election.
As the new LDP leader, Mr Kishida became Japan’s 100th prime
minister and was essentially seen as a safe, if unexciting, choice
to guide Japan through its post-Covid recovery. Mr Kishida also
inherited a stronger position in the vaccination programme
which sustained strong momentum in the second half of 2021
after the very slow start.
Under Mr Kishida’s leadership, the expectations for the LDP’s
performance in the subsequent general election in October
2021 were modest at best but, in the event, the party retained
a solid majority.
With the election out of the way, and the Covid related state of
emergency lifted, the political focus shifted to a substantial
fiscal stimulus package, details of which became clearer in
November. However, Japan imported its first known case of
Omicron in December, followed by a sharp pick-up in infections
from January 2022. While we must continue to emphasise that
the absolute number of infections in Japan has remained
remarkably low throughout the pandemic, the emergence of
new variants again demonstrated a higher level of risk
aversion, and each wave of infections has led to renewed
concerns about hospital capacity. In late May 2022, Mr Kishida
did finally announce that the government would relax some
Covid border measures and resume acceptance of overseas
tourists from 10 June, for the first time in around two years.
Although this generated lots of media attention, in reality the
practical constraints on travel will remain significant for some
time and we will probably need to wait until at least the fourth
quarter of the year to see any real impact from inbound
tourism.
In the first half of 2022, aside from the ongoing human tragedy
unfolding in Ukraine, Japan’s equity market was primarily
driven by news flow on monetary policy and currency markets,
together with concerns over the growing possibility of a
USrecession. Comments from the US Federal Reserve ahead
of April’s interest rate increase clearly pointed to a widening
interest rate differential with Japan materialising earlier than
expected. This view was reinforced by the results of the Bank
of Japan’s own policy meeting on 18 April, which confirmed no
change in policy and the maintenance of the existing target of
+/- 25bps for the 10-year bond yield. There was some surprise
in the degree of commitment to this target shown by Governor
Kuroda when he announced more details around the central
bank’s operation of fixed-rate bond purchases. Prior to March,
these operations had been extremely rare, and generally only
deployed at specific moments of significant market stress.
However, Mr Kuroda stated that these fixed-rate operations
would be conducted every day throughout May, virtually
guaranteeing no rise in bond yields, which quickly pushed the
yen through the key psychological 130 level against the
USdollar.
Although the sharp weakening of the yen has prompted
several public statements, the Bank of Japan’s room for
manoeuvre on the exchange rate is, in reality, very limited.
Shortly after the end of the review period, however, the
Ministry of Finance did intervene directly in currency markets
to support the yen. While such action could yield short-term
results it is unlikely to create a long-term trend change in the
absence of a fundamental shift in policy from the Bank of
Japan. Throughout Japan’s two decades of deflation, investors
have generally viewed yen weakness as positive for Japan since
the benefits for exporters were seen to outweigh any potential
inflationary impact, and it seems that Bank of Japan Governor
Kuroda clearly remains very much in favour of this view. Since
May 2022, however, the yen’s weakness has coincided with a
reversal of several other factors, especially mobile telecom
charges, which had been suppressing the year-on-year
inflation rate in the previous 12 months. This soon became
evident in the headline inflation numbers, which showed core
CPI (excluding only fresh food) jumping to 2.2% in June as the
significant reduction in mobile phone charges finally dropped
out of the year-on-year numbers. Although this level is slightly
above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, the real question remains
whether longer-term inflation expectations move higher in
response, leading to more substantial wage growth as part of
Japan’s normalisation after decades of deflation. Nevertheless,
underlying inflationary pressure in Japan does now appear to
be creeping up, and the year-on-year increase in producer
prices continues to run well ahead of consumer prices.
In July, market events were overshadowed by the shocking
assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on 8 July.
Mr Abe, who resigned in August 2020 as Japan’s longest serving
prime minister, was shot while delivering a campaign speech
in Nara, two days ahead of nationwide Upper House elections.
Although Japan has had two Prime Ministers since Mr Abe, he
remained a hugely influential figure within the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and his absence will alter the internal
dynamics of the party. In the immediate aftermath, however,
the resulting strong support shown for the LDP in the Upper
House elections on 10 July has solidified the position of current
Prime Minister Kishida and has improved political stability.
Despite successive delays in Japan’s domestic economic
recovery, and heightened global uncertainty, Japanese
corporations appear to be performing well and quarterly
results announced during the fiscal year ended March 2022
were consistently ahead of expectations. This has been
particularly true for manufacturing sectors that have benefitted
from the global recovery, but non-manufacturing and service
sector profits have also held up despite the successive
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