8 Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund plc
impacted the shares, causing a steep fall in value, followed by a
subsequent recovery (as at 11 December 2023) to 13.4% below their
value at 30September 2023, and we continue to monitor the
situation. Energean has long-term fixed price contracts with
independent power producers that have over 10 years left to run.
Following the disposals of its cigarette filters and packaging
businesses, Essentra has emerged as a focused business
concentrated on the attractive industrial components space. With a
strengthened balance sheet, the business should be able to make
value enhancing acquisitions to consolidate a fragmented sector,
while continuing to grow organically. It has already made one such
acquisition, even as management continues to buy back shares in line
with its £60m buyback commitment. Although recent trading has
been weak, in line with the broader industrials sector, it is reasonable
to expect the reported numbers to improve as annual comparisons
begin to ease. Management has recently confirmed that this year’s
profit will be within the range of expectations.
We bought shares in specialty chemicals company Johnson Matthey,
which manufactures catalysts for emission controls systems, and
which is also, excitingly, heavily involved in the energy transition,
through its Hydrogen Technologies businesses.
We purchased a stake in Senior, the specialist fluid conveyance and
thermal management engineering company, which, we expect, will
benefit from recovery and structural growth in the commercial
aerospace sector, and continue to win share in the heavy truck
market. An improved balance sheet provides additional comfort.
We bought shares in challenger bank Virgin Money, where we
expect significant improvement in its net interest income in the
medium term. It is in the process of returning a significant amount of
capital (£175m, just under 10% of its market capitalisation at the time
of writing) to shareholders via share buybacks, and we see the shares
as attractively priced.
Our new holding in WH Smith is our main exposure to the Travel
sector. WH Smith’s airport concessions are well placed to benefit from
improving trends in this sub sector. The company has been successful
in winning new locations in US airports, and has a large backlog of
stores won but not opened that will drive growth in the future.
We sold our holdings in specialist mining engineer Weir and
distributor Diploma on their promotion to the FTSE 100, in line with
our stated policy.
We disposed of our residual holdings in gaming company, 888, and
events, media and marketing company Ascential, following a period of
share price recovery. We also sold our small holding in housebuilder
Crest Nicholson, and our remaining position in cyber security and
escrow business NCC, as described above. With the investment case
having played out, we exited Investec and reinvested some of the
proceeds in Virgin Money, also as described above. We exited our
residual position in Ted Baker, following its acquisition by the US
private company American Brands Group.
We disposed of our holding in oil services company Petrofac following
news of the CEO’s departure. We exited our residual position in PZ
Cussons and reinvested the proceeds into drinks manufacturer and
Irn Bru owner AG Barr, which made an interesting entry into the
growing energy drinks market via its acquisition of energy, sports and
protein drinks manufacturer Boost Drinks. Finally, we sold our position
in speciality chemicals company Synthomer, following a recovery in
the share price, seeing stronger balance sheets elsewhere in the
sector.
Outlook and strategy
The year ended September 2023 yielded a welcome return to the
long-term trend of outperformance for Your Company, with a positive,
inflation-beating total return. We have analysed the stock specific
reasons for this above.
That the UK market, particularly Mid-Caps, has had a difficult time,
driven partly by bad PR (including incorrect GDP data from the ONS,
which had masked the economy’s complete recovery from the COVID
pandemic, corrected only in September), and partly by more stubborn
than expected inflation and a return to interest rates last seen around
the time of the Global Financial Crisis, is unlikely to be a topic of hot
debate. Geopolitical risk has increased since we wrote our mid-year
outlook, but this fact does not seem to have put much of a dent in the
market’s confidence in the “Magnificent Seven”, which have streaked
ahead on a cloud of AI (recall that by the end of the film, only three of
the seven were still alive).
We see opportunity in the fact that UK mid cap aggregate valuations
are now sitting at a discount to where they started in autumn 2022.
Most strikingly, they are on a discount to UK large caps, and the yield
of the dividend payers in the Mid 250 index is now at an aggregate
5.3% for the 12 months ahead, vs 4.6% for the FTSE 100
1
. Inflation is
slowly, but mechanically, easing, and although interest rates are
higher than we might have hoped a year ago, the Bank of England
would appear to be showing a more dovish stance at this point.
Our response, in this environment, is to stick to our strategy of
choosing resilient businesses which can deliver high risk-adjusted
returns with rising cash flows and earnings. We have maintained our
focus on two categories of investment. First, those unique assets with
scarcity value and franchise power that allow management teams to
raise prices without noticeably impacting demand. We can logically
expect to be able to buy more of these types of assets if the current
indiscriminatory selloff continues. The other category (flex) takes in
more cyclical businesses or industries that are undergoing some sort
of change, or that might be at some form of a strategic crossroads.
This could be industry consolidation, management change or supply
retreating out of the market. As a result of this change, we believe
these companies will deliver better returns on capital in the future,
rewarding shareholders. Additionally, portfolio companies tend to be
net cash, or to have low levels of debt. This is important as refinancing
costs have increased sharply, hurting profitability, and increasing risks
for equity holders.
Our cautious approach has meant that, in aggregate, around 80% of
our portfolio holdings are geared at 1.0x net debt: EBITDA or less
2
,
which means that they are far less indebted than the aggregate of the
underlying index. This also means that they are in a position to invest
for growth, organic or acquired, to pay dividends (ordinary or special –
we have had five portfolio companies pay special dividends this year)
and/or to carry out share buybacks, where appropriate. Provided this
activity can be done generating a return which beats the company’s
opportunity cost of capital, shareholders will benefit. This year, fifteen
of our fifty-two portfolio companies have carried out a share buyback
programme and twelve programmes are ongoing at the time of
writing. Companies such as asset manager Man Group ($1bn of
shares bought back over 5 years) are typical of the cash generative
business models which we favour in our portfolios.
And what of M&A? It would seem that the prospect of more settled
credit markets, together with eye catching valuations, has spurred
acquirors into action post a summer lull, particularly in the small cap
arena, with recent bids for property listings company On The Market,
media company Kin & Carta and The Restaurant Group, the owner of
Wagamama. After a protracted negotiation period, media mid cap
Ascential has announced the disposal of two of its three business
divisions, one to private equity and one to a US corporate. It seems
logical to us that, if so many UK Mid Caps continue to be priced below
their intrinsic value, we will see more bid approaches.
We would like to remind readers that we are fishing in an attractive
pond. In terms of the long-term potential of UK equities, we suggest
that investors willing to look beyond the ongoing negative headlines
will find the UK punches above its weight. This can be seen in terms of
multi-baggers relative to the US. (See our recent article “
30-baggers”:
Investment Manager’s Review
continued
1
Source: Peel Hunt
2
Excluding financials and real estate holdings.