The Scottish American Investment Company P.L.C.
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Momentum in these two parts of the market was very
strong. Money flowed hot and fast into names linked
to these themes, and their valuations rose. Meanwhile
more traditional industries, such as consumer goods,
healthcare and professional services, which tend to be
the higher quality, more resilient, and in the long‑term
stronger growing parts of the stock market, suffered
from declining valuations as investors took money
away from them. This momentum has no doubt been
reinforced by the ongoing shift to passive investment,
where funds are effectively switched into the most
concentrated and most expensive parts of the market,
funded by the indiscriminate sale of the rest.
In the long‑term, this is unlikely to continue. Technical
factors will come and go, economic cycles will abate,
and capital expenditure will be judged on its results:
ultimately share prices will follow earnings growth. We
are confident in the continued growth in the earnings
of SAINTS’ portfolio companies and this should, with
patience, bear fruit in capital growth. This is even more
the case now that last year’s earnings progression is,
as yet, unrewarded in share price appreciation.
Finally, in reviewing performance over the year, we
should acknowledge that there have also been stock
specific disappointments. The most notable of these
has been Novo Nordisk, where operational missteps,
management changes, intensifying competition and
question marks over future pricing have led to a sharp
fall in the share price. We continue to believe that the
Company’s prospects are very strong, as one of the
two lead players in a growing market: a market where
growth will be spurred by price reductions, where
illegal copycats should be removed from the market,
and where the company’s innovation pipeline over the
coming year should put it back on the front foot – for
example its forthcoming launch of the world’s first oral
pill for obesity. Another European stock, Edenred the
voucher company, has been adversely affected by
regulatory changes in overseas markets. Here too we
believe that its core competencies in its core markets
continue to offer a pathway to assured, and capital
light, growth, and that these setbacks are not fatal
blows but temporary roadbumps.
As managers we invest our own savings alongside
shareholders’, and so we very much appreciate
that patience has been required, both in terms of
challenges at the stock level and the style headwind
alluded to above.
So, what have we been doing in response?
First, we have gone back and checked every
investment case in the portfolio to make sure they
all remain on track. Where the share price of a
holding has been disappointing, but we believe the
competitive advantage and long‑term growth runway
remain intact, we are swallowing the bitter taste
and staying patient. As mentioned above, this even
applies to the portfolio’s two weakest performers last
year, Novo Nordisk and Edenred, which faced real,
well‑publicised headwinds. After in‑depth review and
engagement, we increased both positions, because
of the strength of the underlying growth opportunity,
combined with even more attractive valuations.
Second, we have weeded out of the portfolio any
names where our analysis shows the investment
case had fundamentally weakened. Over the year we
divested from SAINTS’ holding in UPS, the delivery
company, where new competition had raised serious
challenges to future growth. Likewise TCI and
Man Wah, two manufacturers where, despite real
strengths, we have seen brutal competition in China,
diminishing our confidence in future growth. In the
final quarter of the year we divested from Cognex,
where we had observed signs of share loss in some
key markets, and our ongoing research had raised
questions about the company’s growth strategy.
Third, these holdings have been replaced by new
investments. These are typically names which
recently have fallen out of favour in the stock
market, yet we see them delivering strong growth
in the long‑term. At the interim results we talked
about Accenture, the world’s leading technology
consultancy, and Jack Henry, the number one
provider of core banking software in the US. In the
second half of the year we made investments in
MSCI, Alphabet, Mediatek and Zoetis.
New investments
MSCI is a founder‑run business with exciting growth
opportunities ahead of it. Its core business is
providing the index data that investment funds, both
active and passive, are benchmarked against. We
foresee many years of good growth as its clients buy
subscriptions to a rising number of bespoke indices,
in an increasingly fragmented market. We also see
opportunities to grow its profit in multiple adjacent
markets, such as private equity and risk analytics. Its
growth requires little capital which allows it to pay
out a progressive dividend. Recently the shares have
been de‑rated following a slowdown in one part of
its business: this presented an opportunity to take a
holding for SAINTS at a good price.
Alphabet is a company which, until recently, was
a poor fit for SAINTS’ strategy and we judged too
risky to invest in. The company refused to pay
dividends, and until only a few months ago it faced
a case from the US Department of Justice calling