
TR Property Investment Trust8
The portfolio positioning had been heavily adjusted
in the immediate ‘post vaccine’ period (Q4 2020, Q1
2021) essentially closing the underweight to European
markets with shorter commute times (i.e. a focus on
the smaller cities, not London and Paris). The year under
review saw that process extended, with the portfolio
further concentrating on capturing the impact of three
key trends. Firstly, those sectors likely to experience
the greatest rental growth in a recovering economic
environment such as logistics, industrial, self-storage
represented in the portfolio. Secondly, security of income
is crucial. Private rented residential property continues
to enjoy virtually full occupancy, particularly in Germany
and Sweden where rents remain heavily regulated (and
protection and seeking to own explicitly index-linked,
high quality income across a broad range of sectors. This
latter theme overlaps with the residential focus given the
highly defensive nature of the earnings.
All of these themes were drivers of relative
outperformance alongside the positive impact of
numerous merger and acquisition ('M&A') situations
over the year (that activity will be detailed later in the
report). However, it is important to clarify that the listed
German residential names have - with one exception -
performed relatively poorly this year. The sector saw the
largest piece of M&A activity with the cash takeover of
Deutsche Wohnen by Vonovia and this was extensively
reviewed in the Half Year Report. We have remained loyal
to our central view that Berlin residential property values
will continue to outperform the rest of Germany with a
continued supply/demand imbalance. Phoenix Spree
Deutschland (total return +18%) was the performance
outlier over the year and ensured that our German
residential portfolio contributed positively to our relative
outperformance of the benchmark.
consequences of the dramatic increase in remote
working since 2020 are still evolving. However, we are
extent can work remotely. This optionality means that the
for a better quality workplace coincides with businesses
becoming increasingly focused on their environmental
footprint. At the same time government regulation
improvements. The net result will be an increase in
demand (and the rent achieved) for ‘green’ buildings, in
the right locations offering state of the art amenities.
There is already a clear polarisation in favour of CBD
(central business districts) over decentralised or
suburban markets. Central Paris saw take up of +49%
year on year, a drop in immediate supply of 17% over
2020 with vacancy at 3% driving rents up, whilst the
Western Crescent and La Defense saw rents fall and
incentives increase. London experienced a very similar
picture with the West End, Midtown and the City seeing
Q4 2021 take up of 3.8m sq ft, a 7 year quarterly high.
The total take up for 2021 was 10m sq ft, 65% ahead of
2020. Docklands and other suburban markets did not
experience this level of improving statistics. Investors
remain bullish, Knight Frank ('KF') reported a fourfold
increase in Q1, 2022 on the corresponding quarter of
2021 with £5.8bn of transactions (versus £1.2bn).
Savills produced a detailed research note in March 2022,
European cities to varying degrees. We have sympathy
with the overall expectation but the crucial point is the
other side of the equation. If this demand is very focused
on quality, where is that supply coming from? If we look
at the UK’s six regional markets (to avoid only discussing
London) we see all six cities as having less than two years’
pricing with contractors results in reduced speculative
construction which will exacerbate the problem.
KF's M25 report for Q4 2021 highlights technology, media
and telecom (TMT) and Life Science tenant demand but
generally subdued take up levels versus pre-pandemic
levels. Oxford and Cambridge continue to experience
strong rental growth but Reading, Uxbridge and St Albans
saw little, given greater supply of new buildings. The
traditional occupiers of these strong satellite towns are in
for thought’ but this has not been the case. According to KF,
for the region and 45% ahead of the long term average.
International buyers dominated but they generally have a
longer investment horizon than local buyers. The build cost
quality existing assets was a very sensible strategy.
Retail
Negative sentiment towards this sector had begun
to soften as the post pandemic retail environment
experienced the predicted recovery in sales and footfall.
Across Europe, consumers had rebuilt savings (or
reduced debt) over the last two years and the re-opening
statistics didn’t disappoint the optimists. However,
looking forward the investment community is trying
to establish the likely sales volumes post this initial
reporting stability in yields over the last few quarters
Manager’s report
continued