Geopolitics will continue to remain a risk, including
surrounding Taiwan as highlighted by the recent visit by
Nancy Pelosi to the island, which has resulted in increased
tensions between the US and China. Other actions, such as
the recent moves by the US to restrict China’s ability to
purchase and manufacture high-end semiconductors,
combined with the mid-term elections in the US mean it is
unlikely we will see any meaningful relaxation in tensions
near term and this is likely to continue to weigh on sentiment.
From an Asian perspective the biggest impact on growth is
coming from the ‘zero COVID’ policy in China, where the
lockdowns have had a severe impact on growth as well as
exacerbating the weakness in the property sector. It is not
clear how long this policy will remain in place but for now
there is unlikely, in our view, to be any major volte-face in the
near term. The recent Party Congress gave no indication
when the policy might be eased and, whilst vaccination rates
in China are high and comparable to most developed nations,
a large tranche of the elderly still remain unvaccinated
making it difficult for them to open up until this is rectified.
Although a wholesale opening up is unlikely near term, it is
likely that some more incremental easing measures occur.
But in our view, China’s consumption and growth will
continue to remain lacklustre as uncertainty over the path of
COVID weighs on sentiment.
Given this, we have started to see a number of actions to
loosen policy including rate cuts, easing of property purchase
restrictions and increases in infrastructure spending and
fiscal incentives. We consider it likely that we will see further
easing measures but, whilst the ‘zero COVID’ policy remains,
their impact for the large part is likely to resemble pushing on
a string. Nevertheless, given how poorly the market has
performed, together with the move to an easing bias there
(whilst most of the rest of the world are tightening), as well as
a tentative easing of the severity of lockdowns, there is
potential for the market to experience better periods of
performance. From our positioning perspective we have been
very underweight China for some time and although we
continue to look for new opportunities given the falls, we
remain so and believe that the challenges that were there for
the market remain.
Longer term – although Xi’s confirmation at the Congress as
the Party’s General Secretary for his third five year term was
not a surprise, the make up of the Politburo Standing
Committee (and Politburo) was decidedly one-sided being
dominated by Xi loyalists, further cementing his power within
the Party. The lack of countervailing voices within the new
PSC potentially heightens policy risk and likely means that
many of the challenges brought about by increased
regulation will persist, with the narrative around areas such
as ‘common prosperity’ continuing to weigh on the potential
returns of parts of the private sector. All this means one
should not necessarily use a mean reversion argument alone
when it comes to valuation.
Nearer term, although we are likely to see a stabilisation of
the economy, it is hard for it to recover to pre-pandemic
growth rates whilst the strict ‘zero COVID’ policy remains in
place. The infectious nature of the Omicron variant means it is
still likely we will see ongoing rolling restrictions. However, we
could start to see a relaxation of some of the ‘zero COVID’
measures after the party congress but these are likely, in our
view, to be incremental rather than wholesale. All this
continues to mean we look for bottom up stock opportunities
in China, consistent with our process, rather than move
money into the market on a macro, top-down driven
allocation.
India has been one of the best performing markets over the
period, due not only to the economy benefiting from a post-
COVID recovery, but also to domestic flows into the market in
part on optimism about economic prospects following
progress on reforms. Whilst on a long term basis the market
continues to look attractive, valuations are now at extremes
versus the rest of the region, which has led us to temper our
position in some of the more domestic orientated names.
Historically, the relatively weak external accounts have seen
India suffer in a strong US dollar, strong commodity price
environment and this could yet see domestic interest rates
rise faster than expected, impacting valuations. Given the
long term attractions of the market, we would likely use any
correction in favoured names to increase positions.
Sector-wise, aside from information technology, financials
remain an important overweight. Here banks, in our view, still
remain attractive in aggregate on the back of benefits from
rising rates and low valuations. However, given the backdrop
of rising rates in most markets combined with slowing growth
there is a risk that if rates move up faster than expected it
could start to impact asset quality, offsetting the benefit of
expanding margins, so we remain selective. Underweights
are largely found in some of the more ‘defensive’ areas such
as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare where valuations
are generally, in our view, quite full.
While recent events described above do not paint a
particularly optimistic picture, this has in part been reflected
in market action with valuations today looking much less
frothy than they did a year ago. Nevertheless, the US Federal
Reserve being more aggressive on rates near term is clearly a
headwind, given its near term impact on growth and
earnings. However, this in turn should start to cap long-term
inflationary expectations which will pave the way for lower
rates at some point in the future. Until then, it is likely that we
see further downward revisions to earnings and a period of
inventory adjustment amongst companies to reflect the
slower growth and hopefully put them in a position to start to
grow earnings once more. Given overall aggregate valuations
for the region are now trading at or below long-term
averages, this does set up a more constructive backdrop for
Asian markets next year, barring a global hard landing or a
more extreme geopolitical risk event.
To conclude, it is worth remembering that as investors we
buy companies not countries. We are mindful of the impact
political and macroeconomic factors can have on equities and
returns, but we are bottom-up stock-pickers first and
foremost, focusing on the company’s return prospects and
valuation. We do not try to pick companies which will do well
based purely on a particular macro environment which we
have forecast; rather we try to pick well-managed companies
which have structural advantages allowing them to survive
(and hopefully thrive!) in as wide a range of external
conditions as possible. Therefore, a focus on attractive
bottom up ideas, in our view, remains essential.
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Schroder AsiaPacific Fund plc
Investment Manager’s Review