THE BRUNNER INVESTMENT TRUST PLC ANNUAL REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2024
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Financial realities
We believe it is incorrect, however, to
say that a Trump government is entirely
business friendly. Most mainstream
economists caution that his proposals
for tariffs will damage growth for all and
simply be passed on to consumers in the
form of higher prices. Given the inflation
experienced under Biden is often
cited as a reason for the Democrats’
convincing electoral defeat, we expect
to see his proposals watered down with
time. We also note that Trump’s ability
to stimulate the economy this term
via tax cuts is hamstrung by a weak
fiscal position. The US budget deficit
is already large, particularly given we
are not in recession, which is typically
the time governments need to dip
into their coffers as tax revenues fall
and unemployment benefit spending
goes up. Coupled with a large current
account deficit, the US may eventually
prove vulnerable to capital flight. Only
the ‘exorbitant privilege’ of being the
world’s reserve currency is keeping the
bond vigilantes at bay and preventing
America’s ‘Truss’ moment. But this is not
a right. If America continues to spend
beyond its means that will undermine
confidence in Treasuries and America will
struggle to finance its considerable debts
at reasonable rates.
It is wrong to describe US government
bonds such as Treasuries as risk free
assets. Whilst the US government is
certain to pay the coupons on bonds
and repay the principle at maturity, the
value of those payments in real terms
can be undermined by either inflation
or weakness in the currency. We note
that real American interest rates are
increasing (i.e., the gap between inflation
linked Treasury yields and inflation
expectations) indicating that some bond
investors already want extra reward for
the risks they detect.
Concerns about the solidity of fiat
currencies (i.e., those not backed by
physical assets) are used to support
arguments for owning Bitcoin, which are
by design finite in number. In our view,
Bitcoin is a useful barometer of possible
froth in markets.
It is hard to define or prove when a
financial bubble comes into being. If
you add a grain of sand to another and
keep on doing so, at what point does it
become a pile? As we have previously
noted, growing, asset-light businesses
can do extraordinary things that defy
expectations. Future cash flows are
unknown. Proving that businesses of this
type are over-valued is therefore actually
very difficult. We cannot definitively
prove that Tesla is not worth $1.2trillion
dollars despite its scant profits and
shrinking sales volumes. If the carrots
Musk likes to dangle in front of his
acolytes (autonomous driving, humanoid
robots) come good it is possible it is.
Enthusiasm for something like Bitcoin,
which does not, cannot and will never
provide interest or dividends or cash
flows of any sort, is therefore a useful
acid test of common sense. We note
that if you were to own all Bitcoin in
existence (theoretical current value c$2
trillion) you would receive dividends of
zero. $2 trillion could also buy 75% of the
entire FTSE 100, which would generate
dividend income of around $75bn
per year.
In the spirit of open mindedness, we
can see how Bitcoin may be a useful
way to launder money or avoid taxes;
Swiss banking secrecy laws aren’t what
they were, after all. For those who think
Bitcoin will proffer a useful currency
should modern civilisation collapse,
we’ve consulted the literature on this;
books such as Cormac McCarthy’s The
Road and Emily St Mandel’s Station
Eleven suggest you should instead invest
in a shopping trolley, a rifle and a large
quantity of tinned foods. We’re afraid the
Brunner Investment Trust cannot offer
this service.
Profitability and competition
At the heart of the current debate for
global investors is the appropriate
premium for American stocks. With
higher returns, higher growth and a
more shareholder friendly business
environment we believe it is plain some
premium is warranted.
One manifestation of the superiority of
American businesses and the American
system being loaded in favour of the
shareholder is the fact that in the US
profits as a % of GDP are at record
highs. ‘Bowley’s Law’ observes that
economic interests tend to split 70:30
labour to capital over time. In the
past years that’s changed, with more
economic rent accruing to the latter.
This helps explains why stock markets
in the US have roared ahead whilst
real wages have stagnated – the result
being widening inequality. We have
often said that stock market value
accrues in niches. Often those niches
are de facto monopolies, duopolies
or oligopolies where businesses have
established positions that reduces the
intensity of competition that hampers
profitability for most. Indeed, many
of Brunner’s core holdings fit that
description. Barriers to entry, sustainable
competitive advantages and attractive
industry structures are all indicative of
a business’s quality and something we
actively look for when selecting our
holdings. Capitalism is constructed so
that competition should erode super
normal profits but more and more of
the stock market in America comprises
businesses that have developed
enviable resistance to new entrants. With
that comes high profitability and when
combined with growth the result has
been very positive financial outcomes.
A key risk to this is regulation. Lina Kahn,
the Head of the FTC, is pursuing multiple
cases against what she regards as
anti-competitive tactics at companies
like Google, an alleged monopolist,
albeit one that reached that status on
merit and without, arguably, hurting
the consumer. US antitrust authorities
are currently publicly investigating
companies representing more than
40% of the value of the S&P 500. One
of the posited reasons the US market
performed so strongly immediately
after the re-election of Trump is that
his administration will be more tolerant
of the status quo – another example
of regulatory capture – and that
he will replace Kahn with someone
more tolerant of businesses with
‘dominant’ positions.
Network effects – three case
studies from three continents
There are several key sources of
barriers to entry that support high
levels of corporate profitability and
we spend a lot of time thinking about
them. A key one is ‘network effects’;
something that can be seen in several
of our holdings. Take Visa, the payment
processing company, which exists in a
virtual duopoly alongside Mastercard.
There are over four billion Visa cards in
circulation accepted at more than 150
million retail points of sale worldwide
and issued by tens of thousands of
financial institutions. We believe it is
very unlikely Visa’s two-sided network of