THE BRUNNER INVESTMENT TRUST PLC ANNUAL REPORT 30 NOVEMBER 2023
consequences. This crisis of confidence
then spread across the US regional
banking sector, with several other banks
failing before confidence was restored.
In Europe, Credit Suisse was rescued
by UBS in a deal brokered by the
Swiss government after another crisis
of confidence.
These events were a timely reminder of
the inherent fragility of the fractional
banking system. Put simply, not all
depositors can have their deposits
back at once, as they have been lent
to others. Banks rely on trust and loss
of trust can be fatal. In most markets,
regulators reinforce trust by insuring
deposits (up to £85,000 in the UK). In
the instance of SVB, most deposits
belonged to businesses not individuals
and most balances were therefore
way beyond the insured level. It was
perfectly rational, therefore, for venture
capital firms to insist that their investee
companies withdrew their funds from
SVB the moment rumours of their
problems began. In the old days,
depositors had to queue outside the
branch as they did in the movie ‘It’s a
Wonderful Life’. These days withdrawals
can take place at the click of a button,
lowering the associated friction to
negligible levels.
At Brunner, we believe we are
appropriately cautious when it comes to
our small investments in banks. We are
mindful that banks’ balance sheets are
generally in better shape than they have
been for many decades, which should
make them safer and allow for very
generous levels of cash returns going
forwards. However, they are rarely value
creative in the way we described earlier.
A bank loan is a bank loan is a bank
loan. Borrowers do not pay a premium
for a mortgage from Lloyds over a
mortgage from Nationwide for example.
Opportunities to eke out a competitive
advantage tend to be meagre and, as
the SVB case shows, the risks are higher
than they are for most businesses.
We have positions in banks where
we believe we are adequately
compensated for the corresponding
dangers and in all cases we look for
banks we believe operate at the very
lower end of the relative risk spectrum.
Our largest bank holding is DNB,
the leading Norwegian bank, which
operates within one of the strictest
regulatory frameworks in the world.
Capital levels (as measured by the
amount of equity set aside to deal with
losses) are higher than virtually any
other major bank in existence. Another
small holding, UK based Close Brothers,
intentionally has longer dated deposits
than loans (for example, it may borrow
money from depositors for two years
and lend it to borrowers for one year)
essentially eliminating the possibility
of a run entirely. We are not naïve
about banks and feel that our cautious
approach has been vindicated by recent
events in the US and elsewhere.
After a couple of years dominated by
the impact of the COVID pandemic,
news flow in the healthcare sector
focused on the success of a new
class of anti-obesity drugs. The most
prominent variant is called Wegovy
and is manufactured by Novo
Nordisk, a Brunner holding. Wegovy
is administered via a weekly injection
and clinical trials show that it leads to
a 15% reduction in body weight after
one year. This is a massive impact
which has numerous health benefits.
A subsequent trial found that those
taking Wegovy had a 20% reduction
in ‘material adverse cardiovascular
events’ (i.e., heart attacks and strokes).
A further litany of benefits is suspected.
For example, in addition to the feeling
of fullness and the reduction in appetite
Wegovy induces, reduced cravings for
alcohol have been reported, leading to
a trial for alcohol use disorder.
At present, demand for Wegovy far
outstrips Novo Nordisk’s manufacturing
capacity. Consensus expectations
are for annual sales to peak later this
decade close to $20bn, implying very
widespread usage and making it one
of the best-selling drugs of all time.
The anticipated success of the drug at
reducing health problems en masse led
to a notable fall in the shares of many
healthcare companies that treat the
problems Wegovy et al may prevent.
Companies which make devices to treat
heart problems or sleep apnea (heavily
associated with obesity) sank, as did
shares in food companies like Mondelez
(Oreos, Cadburys) and McDonalds.
Calorific intake in the US is way above
global averages and we would not
be surprised to see food consumption
there gradually fall, with the feeling of
satiety induced by weight loss drugs
contributing to that decline.
In the first half of the year, oil and gas
prices fell from the peaks seen after
the invasion of Ukraine but stabilised
thereafter. Demand has rebounded and
supply remains in check from a sector
newly focused on capital discipline,
partially at the behest of investors tired
of profligate expenditure with scant
regard to returns and partially at the
behest of the ESG movement. Ironically,
the reverse was seen in the renewables
space, with returns for offshore wind
projects, particularly, suffering from a
toxic combination of cost overruns and
higher financing rates.
As we noted earlier, just because
something is important or growing does
not make it profitable. We are hopeful
that the sector will be restructured in
a way to ensure the economic returns
are sufficient to attract the massive
amounts of investment the sector
needs in order for society to meet its net
zero aspirations. The ‘electrification of
everything’ remains a capital-intensive
must if the planet is to avoid the worst
impacts of climate change.
It will be intriguing to watch this energy
transition take place. It remains our
belief that this will be frustratingly
slow, multi-decade process, necessarily
involving the mobilisation of trillions
of dollars and vast amounts of
physical, material assets. We suspect
the industrial economy of the
developed world will benefit from this
unprecedented investment, in stark
contrast to the deindustrialisation of the
past fifty years as manufacturing etc has
been offshored to China and elsewhere.
China finally reopened at the start of
the year after lifting some of the most
draconian COVID lockdowns imposed
anywhere. Compared to other countries,
the subsequent economic rebound has
been lacklustre. Indeed, China appears
to be struggling with both deflation
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