
CVC INCOME & GROWTH LIMITED ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT 31 DECEMBER 2022
9
STRATEGIC REPORT (CONTINUED)
INVESTMENT VEHICLE MANAGER’S REPORT
Summary
2022 was a tough year for most asset classes, with the S&P 500 recording its worst annual
performance since 2008
a
. The traditional 60/40 portfolio, with 60% equities and 40% bonds,
recorded a loss of 17% in 2022, the worst performance since at least 1999. The inverse correlation
between equities and bonds broke down as both asset classes had negative returns in 2022
b
. There
were a number of drivers behind this negative performance across the board. First of all, central
banks worldwide acknowledged early on in 2022 that inflation was more than just transitory.
Most central banks globally, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (“ECB”) and
Bank of England (“BoE”) were all behind the curve and had to hike interest rates aggressively
during 2022 to fight high single digit/low double digit inflation. Secondly, the Russian invasion
of Ukraine caused, on top of the human tragedy, an economic fall-out which mainly impacted
Europe and Emerging Markets. Many countries were quick to impose sanctions on Russia, but as
a large exporter of commodities (mainly food and energy), the situation drove global inflation to
new highs. As tensions between Russia and Europe/US rose, the gas flows from Russia to Europe
stopped, resulting in a large spike in European natural gas prices and driving Europe into an
energy crisis. Finally, in Q4, the mini-budget in the UK led to more volatility in financial markets
and the BoE had to step in to avert a systemic risk from spreading.
If we focus on the performance of European credit in general, we can see that leveraged loans held
up very well compared to other asset classes. European investment grade returned (17.2)%
c
for the
year while High Yield returned (11.6)%
d
. The European leveraged loan market returned (3.3)%
e
as
the lack of duration and increasing coupon income drove the relative outperformance for loans.
When we dig deeper into the performance of the Credit Suisse Western European Leveraged Loan
Index (“CS WELLI”), hedged to EUR, we note that BB rated loans actually returned 0.42% for the
year, while single B rated loans returned (3.2)% and CCC rated loans returned (20.94)%. The
average price on the index dropped from 98.71 at the end of 2021 to 91.56 at the end of 2022,
having hit a low of 89.98 at the end of September.
The sell-off we saw in the sub-investment grade market was partially a result of the deteriorating
macro outlook, as described above, but also due to market technicals. Over the year, we saw
forced selling from two corners of the market. On the back of 2021’s significant mergers and
acquisitions, banks came into 2022 with a large pipeline of underwritten bridge loans, which on
internal estimates stood at €30-35bn at the time Russia invaded Ukraine. With collateralised loan
obligations (“CLO”) issuance grinding to a halt, and outflows from multi-asset funds occurring,
demand for broadly syndicated loans dried up. Banks were forced to syndicate these bridge loans
at material losses and this put pressure on secondary loan prices. Secondly, on the back of Kwasi
Kwarteng’s mini-budget in the UK, we saw forced selling from UK liability-driven investment
(“LDI”) pension funds of, amongst others, CLO liabilities, ranging all the way from AAAs to single
B’s. After a difficult few months on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the CLO market
had found an equilibrium between supply and demand over the summer. However, this renewed
volatility, driven by LDI sellers, yet again put a halt on CLO creation and hence loan buyers again
backed away from the secondary market. To put this into context, pricing on AAA liabilities was in
the 95-110 bps range at the end of January 2022, peaked at 225-275 bps just after the UK’s mini-
budget, and finished the year in the region of 180-210 bps
f
.
On the fundamental side, we did see a marginal deterioration in credit quality, in particular for
companies that struggled to pass on raw material/labour cost inflation. However, default rates
remained very low with the CS WELLI recording 1.9% defaults at the end of 2022. With the index,
hedged to EUR, showing an average cash price of 91.56 and a 3yr discount margin of 661 bps, the
loan market has rarely been cheaper. Moreover, the increase in base rates we saw during 2022
provides investors with additional buffer in case defaults were to pick up in 2023. In July, 3 month
Euribor went positive for the first time since early 2015, making the 0% floor, that most loans
have, irrelevant for the first time in 7 years.