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At a sector level the main contributors to positive performance were consumer discretionary, information
technology, materials and communication services. Sectors that dragged performance lower were led by
financials, with utilities, industrials and energy also detracting. Cash, which averaged 2.7% over the period,
pulled relative performance lower in the rising market.
At a stock level IT services company Persistent Systems rose over 200%, along with Tech Mahindra (IT
sector) which rose 90%. Dixon Technologies (electrical equipment manufacturing) expanded the outsize
gains made last year by rising 103% in 2021 driven by healthy earnings growth and multiple re-rating. This
was also the case with long-term holding Welspun (integrated textiles) which rose 114%. New portfolio
entrant Sona BLW (precision engineering, see below) rose 112% as investors priced in substantial growth
expectations. Elsewhere, Sagar Cement (up 105%) and Ramkrishna Forgings (up 97%) outperformed from
the materials sector, whilst Affle India (digital advertising through mobiles) was also a significant
outperformer. Adverse stock selection was the major contributor to negative attribution in financials, led by
City Union Bank, Indusind Bank and Multi Commodity Exchange. Performance has started to pick up more
recently in this sector as the market starts to believe that asset quality issues and excess provisioning may
soon be replaced by improving loan growth leading to recovering profitability. Underperformance in
industrials was a combination of both adverse stock selection and insufficient allocation though this was
partially offset by outperformance by portfolio heavyweight Kajaria Ceramics which rose 85%. It was a
similar story in the utilities sector whereby the portfolio missed out on outperformance over the period
despite a strong showing by Gujarat Gas. The portfolio finished the year with one stock fewer. Exide
Industries, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, BLS Services, Bajaj Consumer Care and Arihant
Foundations were sold. Portfolio additions were four, made up of Affle India, Sona BLW, Bajaj Electricals
and Jubilant Foodworks. A short description of each is included below.
Affle India (Affle) is a digital ad-tech company operating only in the mobile space. Using data science
algorithms, Affle enables advertisers to drive targeted marketing campaigns to acquire new customers or
engage existing ones. It earns 89% of revenue through a “cost-per-converter-user revenue model” where
Affle is paid once a customer is converted. It has a strong position in markets such as India (revenue c.
48%) and other emerging markets across Asia, Middle East, and Latin America. With increasing
smartphone usage and online shopping both accelerated by Covid-19, we believe Affle provides exposure
to a large market opportunity across the digital ecosystem. Advertisers continue moving towards digital
marketing and away from the traditional media, and within digital, programmatic advertising (as adopted by
Affle), is winning incremental share.
Sona BLW Precision Forgings (Sona BLW), an automotive ancillary company. It supplies critical
components such as differential assemblies, differential gears, starter motors and traction motors to
automotive companies across the world. Sona BLW is a direct beneficiary of electric vehicle (EV) adoption
globally as differential assemblies and gears are a critical component to manage high torque requirements
in EV. In FY21, EV contributed 14% of revenues, out of which Tesla accounts for 13%. The company’s
strength comes from in-house design, knowledge of metallurgy and warm forging capability, making it one
of the most integrated players in the sector. Unlike many automotive ancillary players, Sona BLW is in a
strong position to benefit from EV adoption both in India (in time) and globally.
Bajaj Electricals Limited (BJE) is a leading player in the Fast-Moving Electric Goods (FMEG) space, selling
appliances, fans, and lighting products to consumers. BJE’s strength lies in its strong brand, distribution,
and after-sales service. The company also has an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC)
division which focuses on areas such as lighting, transmission towers and power distribution. This is now
being demerged. Along with cost efficiencies coupled with operating leverage, there is a structural change
in the company’s margin trajectory. The company has not only deleveraged its balance sheet through
healthy operating cash flows but has also stepped up investments in branding and new products. Going
forwards, we feel the company is well on track to achieve over 22% ROCE from FY22E onwards. We expect
its increase in sales and PAT CAGR from FY21E to FY23E to be 17% and 48% respectively.
Jubilant Foodworks is the largest food service company in India operating two international brands –
Domino’s Pizza and Dunkin’ Donuts. Domino’s is the largest quick service restaurant (QSR) brand in India
with 1,435 stores across 307 cities. We believe Jubilant is fast converting into a food powerhouse with
multiple brands backed by strong digital capabilities. Because of Covid-19, India is witnessing increased
scrutiny on hygiene, which will benefit strong QSR brands driving market share gains from informal players
such as street food vendors. Currently, 85% of orders are from the delivery channel which is expected to
fall to 75% as the economy opens gradually post-Covid. We forecast 55% CAGR in earnings from FY21-
24 driven by a healthy store addition pipeline and margin resilience due to high same store sales growth
and operating leverage.