
Introduction
The past year was another challenging one for investors. Rising
interest rates fuelled fears of a global recession, which sapped
investors’ confidence. Geopolitical uncertainties escalated as
the war in Ukraine reached a stalemate, tensions ignited in the
Middle East and relations between the US and China remained
fraught. For most of the year, global equity markets struggled
under the weight of these adverse influences, with the exception
of a few US tech stocks perceived to be the main beneficiaries
of the artificial intelligence (“AI”) revolution. However, market
sentiment began to improve considerably in the last quarter of
2023. Tight monetary policy began to take effect, driving down
inflationary pressures, without triggering recession in most major
economies, and equity indices were buoyed by the prospect of
interest rate cuts during 2024.
Private Markets Industry
In private markets, 2023 saw few IPOs, while mergers and
acquisition (M&A) activity was also limited. This constrained
private equity exit activity, which declined by 24% through to
September 2023,
1
to its lowest level in a decade, which in turn
limited investors’ ability and appetite to commit to new funds.
On the sell side, many private equity managers held on to
high-quality assets while they waited for greater clarity on
asset valuations. They also delayed fundraisings and final
closes in the face of investor reticence. Global private markets
fundraising declined 36% through to September 2023,
1
with
capital more concentrated in the hands of the larger scale,
strongly performing managers. Among developed markets, the
US and Canada held up best, thanks to the depth of their capital
markets, while European markets saw deals decline in value and
size. In the Asia-Pacific region, China’s disappointingly insipid
post-pandemic rebound and ongoing property market problems
saw focus shift to other regional markets. Although India was
the only market to see an increase in exits, Australia and New
Zealand saw some sizeable transactions in Q3 of 2023.
1
Valuations
These generally subdued market conditions had an inevitable
impact on valuations. The valuations of venture and growth
assets remained under pressure during the first nine months
of the calendar year, although tech-related asset values began
to improve in late 2023 in response to the strong gains in
some listed tech stocks. Overall, NAV held steady over the year,
although premiums to NAV on exit will have been compressed,
as managers felt some urgency to realise investments, even at
slightly lower than desired premiums. Regardless, exits are still
being realised at a healthy premium to carrying value of 24%,
2
which should provide confidence in the validity of our NAV.
However, despite this lacklustre backdrop, private equity
managers still found attractive new investments and managers
with strong track records succeeded in raising large funds. The
sector’s top managers continued to perform well - some of the
largest, most successful managers reported double-digit returns.
3
Conditions across the industry improved in Q4 of 2023 as
macroeconomic uncertainties began to abate and public markets
recovered accordingly. There were signs that IPOs and M&A
activity were beginning to recover and bid-ask spreads, which
are the differences between the highest price a buyer will pay and
the lowest price a seller will accept for an asset, have narrowed.
Strategic Asset Allocation review
Following the 2023 annual review of HVPE’s strategic asset
allocation targets, the Board approved the following changes
recommended by the HVPE Investment Committee:
• At the Stage level, an increase in the target allocation to
Mezzanine and Infrastructure and Real Assets (“InfRA”) from 10%
to 15%, reducing the target Buyout allocation from 60% to 55%.
At the end of January 2024, the actual allocation to Mezzanine
and InfRA stood at 8%, while the actual allocation to Buyout
stood at 61%. Reaching these new targets will therefore involve a
seven percentage point increase in allocations to Mezzanine and
InfRA and a six percentage point decline in exposure to Buyouts.
• At the geographical level, an increase in the target allocation to
Europe from 20% to 24%, reducing the target Asia allocation
from 20% to 16%. The actual allocation to Europe already stood
at 21% by end January 2024, while the actual allocation to Asia
was 14%.
The increase to Mezzanine and InfRA is intended to ensure
that HVPE benefits from increased exposure to the attractive
risk/reward profile on offer in real assets and yield-oriented
investments. HVPE’s infrastructure investments have performed
well through the rising rate environment of the last two years,
while the yields on offer in private credit now range from 10-12%
at the senior level to 14-18% for junior credit.
4
The increased target weighting to Europe reflects the fact that,
in our assessment, the private markets ecosystem in Europe
has developed markedly in recent years. The opportunity set has
grown, particularly in the venture and growth equity market, while
returns have been resilient across our European buyout exposure.
Meanwhile in Asia, the investing environment has seen a marked
change due to the scarcity of new investment opportunities in
China. While the country has historically been a single source of
strength for the region based on the exponential growth of the
consumer internet segment during the prior hype cycle, recent
changes have largely closed that market to North American and
European investors, with a 77% decline in fundraising year-over-
year through Q3 of 2023.
5
The region is undergoing dramatic
shifts that are creating near-term growth opportunities in other
markets like Japan, Korea, and India.
These new target allocation weightings are medium to long-term
goals, and we will endeavour to move the portfolio towards these
weightings over the next five years. The next review is scheduled
to take place in November 2024.
1 PitchBook, data is for global private equity and venture capital as of September 30, 2023.
2 These figures represent the weighted average percentage uplift to carrying value of 79 individual company M&A and IPO transactions during the year ended 31 January
2024. This analysis takes each company’s value (whether realised or unrealised) at 31 January 2024 and compares it to the carrying value prior to announcement of the
transaction. This analysis represents 83% of the total value of transactions in the year ended 31 January 2024 and does not represent the portfolio as a whole.
Additionally, it does not reflect management fees, carried interest, and other expenses of the HarbourVest funds or the underlying managers, which will reduce returns.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.
3 Bain, data as of January 2024.
4 Refinitiv, data as of September 30, 2023.
5 HarbourVest, AVCJ, and APER, data as of September 30, 2023.
13Strategic Report Governance Financial Statements Other Information