
12
potential remains as it was. The company has secur
ed a lar
ge pilot program with the State of Pennsylvania which
could, alongside other opportunities in the US, add to the already signicant gr
owth potential. Having come to the
market at 200p in September 2020, the share price exceeded 400p in September 2021 but declined to 112.5p by
the end of September 2022, a decline of 71.5% in the period. W
e added 0.3% of NA
V to the position in the period.
Supreme (-0.9ppt r
elative impact)
– the vertically integrated manufacturer and distributor
of everyday branded
consumer products warned on prots twice during the period. In April 2022, the company agged higher distribution
costs and raw material (whey) ination impacting their Sports Nutrition business. In July 2022, the company issued
a negative update on their Lighting business driven by retailer overstocking. Following material downgrades to
consensus earnings, Supreme trades on a depressed valuation which we think undervalues a business with a solid
balance sheet position and strong gr
owth potential, particularly in vaping which is the dominant driver of group
earnings.
Aquis Exchange (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– operates the pan-Eur
opean Aquis equities exchange with a disruptive
subscription pricing model that enables rms to reduce trading costs in adher
ence with MiFID II best execution
requir
ements. Whilst the company continues to grow and generate cash, market shar
e gains in trading volumes
have been slower than those delivered over the last few years. Caution towar
ds illiquid early-stage technology
companies has driven a lar
ge derating of the shares which declined by 57% in the period.
Mind Gym (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– a pr
ovider of behavioural science solutions to corporates that ar
e proven
to deliver business improvements, declined 50% as it missed r
evenue growth expectations at a time of heavy
investment for growth, citing pandemic r
elated disruption on client decision making. The company is investing to
produce a highly personalised learning experience which is expected to enable corporates to deliver behaviour
change at scale. Combined with strong thematic tailwinds as sustainability issues ar
e high on management agendas,
there is r
obust support for long-term growth, but it does come at a cost to short-term pr
otability as the business
reinvests pr
ots. The shares trade at a
valuation which is well below historic levels and at a signicant discount to
private market transaction multiples for learning and development peers.
Revolution Bars (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– is the operator of 69 bars which we invested in thr
ough an equity
fundraise in 2020 and 2021 with the view to an eventual normalisation in trading and protability
. The business
returned to protability and str
ong cash generation in their last nancial year despite curtailed trading over the
peak Christmas and New Y
ear trading period. Whist we recognise the inher
ent nancial gearing given the leasehold
strategy and negative working capital position, the balance sheet was in a net cash position ahead of the acquisition
of a portfolio of pubs which will bring some diversication to trading. Like many other consumer exposed stocks,
the market value at the end of the period discounts the tough outlook with the shares falling by 57% in the period.
There is however evidence in the nancials that the company is delivering to our Recovery investment case.
Virgin Wines (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– if you wer
e to write a list of attributes for a company not to possess over
the last year
, the following would all rank fairly highly: a recent IPO, of an ecommerce business model, with exposur
e
to the UK consumer
. The 75% decline in the shares was not helped by a downgrade to expectations but the current
valuation does not, in our view
, recognise a protable business with a net cash balance sheet that has continued to
take market share over the last few years. W
e added 0.5% of NA
V to the position in the period.
DF Capital (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– is a specialist lender of inventory nance for holiday homes, caravans and
commercial vans. It is another example of the curr
ent price failing to reect the opportunity
. The company is trading
at a lar
ge discount to book value whilst delivering excellent growth in their loan book. Ir
onically
, the key challenge
they’ve had in growing the loan book has been loan facilities being paid back too quickly
. A short average loan
duration protects the business fr
om a mismatch in assets and liabilities which should support net interest mar
gins.
The business remains well placed to gr
ow and deliver mid-teens return on equity which should support a re-rating.
W
e added over 0.5% of NA
V to the position in the period.
Cake Box (-0.8ppt relative impact)
– was initially impacted by a blog which highlighted several issues (see Mar
ch
2022 Interim Report for more details) which the company is addr
essing through investment in internal functions.
Importantly
, we cannot see any manipulation of revenue, pr
ots or cash generation in the inaccuracies which points
to poor reporting as opposed to anything mor
e sinister
. Whilst the company had delivered str
ong top line growth
post the pandemic, it is not immune to wider macro challenges. The shar
es fell further as management downgraded
expectations due to a softer demand environment coupled with cost pr
essures, specically in raw material and
distribution, which will be passed onto consumers with a lag. Cake Box remains pr
otable and cash generative
with a strong balance sheet, trading on a double-digit fr
ee cash ow yield, with a pipeline of new store openings to
support its growth ambitions.